Bye weeks are kicking in, injuries have definitely kicked in. Starting RB's and WR's has become more difficult than usual for this early phase of the season.
Today is a full day of action in the LOC, with teams trying to scramble to get a win streak and the two undefeateds hoping to become the last man standing. We may have more teams with losing records than winning records after the smoke clears.
The Titleist takes on the NLS while the High Rollers battle among themselves. Let's take a quick look at the matchups...
The projections are accurate as of 12:45pm...
Expectations
The Threat have been on fire thus far, but they take on a dangerous Crushers team that is only a few points from 4-0.
The Goff/Gibbs duo delivers big points today for TLM, and their running game keeps up with the Crushers Henry/Cook backfield. Rodgers has a good day for Cliff, but LaPorta must reach the end zone. For the Threat, how well Adams does will decide if this one is close or a blowout.
Picks
ESPN: Threat by 15
FP: Threat by 25
LM: Threat by 2
Expectations
The Losers are winning most weeks, but they'll need team depth to give them an injury/bye assist against a capable Dominators squad.
Tuten has done decently for LL in the early game, but Gainwell gained poorly on Thursday in place of Saquon. Lamb didn't help either. Michael Wilson and Jayden Daniels will have to go off for the Losers to keep up with Diesel here. Jeanty and CMC win the RB battle, and the young receiving group should do enough for a comfortable Doms win.
Picks
ESPN: Doms by 30
FP: Doms by 30.5
LM: Doms by 20
Expectations
The Crew are only one game back in the NLS, and they'll aim to get past a WR-heavy Marauders squad to keep up.
Bucky Irving went big on Thursday, and his 28.5 have the Marauders out in front (Javonte - 11 for 4:20). No Ken Walker for the Crew won't help here, though Ollie G may be a nice fill-in. Joe to Jamarr will keep the Crew in it, but Deebo will need a good game. Expect big days from 2 of the 3 Marauders WRs (Amon-Ra, Nico, Olave) lifts them to a win.
Picks
ESPN: Marauders by 21
FP: Marauders by 20.5
LM: Marauders by 12
Expectations
This matchup features an up and down Bruisers team trying to get to 3-2 against an Addicts squad that has only seen misfortune thus far.
Expect the Bruisers running game to look their best here, though JT will give the Addicts another good showing. JSN and Parker Washington (20+) provide cushion for BB. Pickens served up 23.5 for Ghetto, but Kittle and Jamo have to shine. They will do just enough to challenge late. It won't be enough.
Picks
ESPN: Bruisers by 15
FP: Bruisers by 20
LM: Bruisers by 8
Expectations
The defending champs bounced back in Week 4, and they take on an injury-riddled Footbal Team looking for an upset division win.
Bye weeks could make this one interesting. Can the Wolves squeeze enough out of Montgomery and Allen to outpace the Football Team's Shipley/Wilson combo? It won't be a high-scoring matchup. Juwan reaches a dozen for WFT. Puka and Evans deliver strong days for Dire, while WFT struggles to get enough of out their WR unit. The defenses decide this one.
Picks
ESPN: Wolves by 7
FP: Wolves by 23
LM: WFT by 1
Expectations
The undefeated Remix enter this one trying to get past a Cheetahs team looking for their first win of the campaign.
With Allen back in business after a mid Week 4, the Remix will have a QB edge here. Expect Robinson to excel yet again, though Judkins may underachieve. The return of JJ helps the Cheetahs and Garrett Wilson will look good today. Won't be enough to keep up with Zay and London.
Picks
ESPN: Remix by 9
FP: Remix by 22
LM: Remix by 5
Two undefeated teams roll on. The Remix took top score this week, posting the season's first 150. The Threat are the only other Owner of the Week thus far...that's two apiece for the two 4-0's.
One winless team got on the board (Dominators), and three more got to 3-1. The Wolves bounced back after a down Wk 3,, the Losers notched a win that flipped projections, and the Crew beat the Crushers in an NLS shootout.
Trophies and matchup reviews below.
It was a hard fought game. The Crew seem to be finding their groove, as 3 players topped 20 points in the win. Walker again led the way with 28, but Javonte and Joe Cool both added 22.5 to give them enough of a cushion to hold off the Crushers. This despite losing Chase and McConkey to injury. Tee Higgins (23) was the primary beneficiary of the Chase injury, and the Crushers found points from most every position, including 16's from Lamar and LaPorta. The defensive battle proved the difference in this one (Jets - 1pt, Bears - 14pts).
As well as things have gone for the Remix thus far, the opposite has been true for the Addicts. This one was never really close, compounded by Mariota's injury and and single-digit efforts from most key players for Ghetto. Taylor gave 18 and Kittle posted 16 to lead the effort, but it was still a blowout loss that puts the Addicts in uncharted territory. The Remix got to 150 on the strength of Bijan's 28 and Zay Flowers' 21.5. Add in double digit days from 6 others...including 17 from the kicker, and you've got a recipe for plenty of wins.
The Threat continue their march of undefeated football as well. Jared Goff led the way with 22 and Malik Nabers contributed a promising 20 to pace the effort. Bowers and the Giants D both chipped in 15 more to get the Threat plenty of cushion. Over in Walkertown, the story has been injuries, but they put up their best showing yet to keep this one closer than the projected blowout. Chuba came up with 23 on Sunday night and Emanuel Wilson stepped up for 21.5 more. Good call on Roman Wilson (13) as well, but it wasn't enough to topple the Threat.
It hasn't been a barnstorming campaign, but the Losers are finding ways to win despite expert projections. Bryce Young was the key pickup, posting 20 to provide a winning edge. But CeeDee was immaculate. His 33 points were the second highest score of the week and were pivotal in ensuring victory (despite Saquon's injury). The Marauders had a good day from Olave (17.5) and Mahomes was serviceable at 15 pts, but Nico's 25 on the bench proved costly. Always start your studs, they say. Watson's 6 (instead) was the nail.
The return of Puka was certainly a benefit for the Wolves, and his 23 was certainly an encouraging sign. The real story here? T-Mac's league-leading 36 points on Sunday night. 192 yards and 2 TD's is a serious contirbution. That was the difference in this one. Metcalf's 16 point plug-in was also clutch. The Bruisers aren't in bad shape, and the running game combined for 42 (Kyren's 28 + Brown's 14). Reichard kicked in a mean 20 to assist the cause, but JSN came down from his meteoric play of late with 10. Add Washington's 1 and the WR battle was the difference.
Someone was putting a W up for the first time this year, and it turned out to be the Dominators. A clutch start of Carnell Tate delivered 19 points, while 4 others chipped in 12-13 in a winning combo to get Diesel back on their feet. Might be one of the lowest non-bye-week bench scores ever (4.5), but the right players were started. The Jefferson injury ankled the Cheetahs outlook here, and underachievement from expected stars has not helped. Kamara led the scoring with 16, and Kicker Cam Little added 14.5. WR depth didn't hold up in this one.
Week 4 Sunday gets rolling early with Colts/Comms from London.
This week sees the NLS in a division battle and the High Rollers facing the Titleist group.
Here's what we can see based on the matchups: At least one 0-3 team will get their first win. At least three teams will be 3-1 (since all six 2-1 teams square off this week). Our two 3-0 teams are projected to get to 4-0.
What upsets will we see? Which underachieving team will finally get it rolling? What previously strong team will have a letdown this week? We're about to find out...let's look at the matchups.
Projections are current as of 11am Sunday.
Matchup
The Burrow vs. Lamar points battle should be interesting to watch. The Crushers should get more from Cook than Henry this week. Walker will match Cook for the Crew. The WR tilt goes to the Crew, as Samuel should see extra targets (with Evans out) and Chase is good for 15+. If Higgins can break one for Cliff, that will keep this one close. Bears D outscores Jets D to help the Crew.
Javonte and McConkey are the key cogs to watch for 4:20. Good days from them means a Crew win. LaPorta and Shaheed will be the x-factors that could help the Crushers sneak by, but not without 12-15 each.
Projections
ESPN: Crushers by 5
FP: Crew by 6.5
LM: Crew by 5
Matchup
An early injury to Mariota stifles the chances for Ghetto here. Jon Taylor needs 20 by game's end. Skattebo will also have to contribute double digits. Judkins gave the Remix 16 on Thursday, and along with whatever Bijan does, it should be enough to win the position. Josh Allen won't reach 20 this week, but Drake and Zay will both outpace projections.
Kittle will have a big day for the Addicts, but lesser days from Pickens and 10 from Addison won't help the WR group. Flex battle will be a good one, with Malik vs Golden a potential swing matchup. Vikings D helps ensure the win for the OG's.
Projections
ESPN: Remix by 18
FP: Remix by 19
LM: Remix by 10
Matchup
Injuries to Evans and Hall have not muted projections for the Wolves. Shough vs. Brissett is quite the QB duel. Shough will edge out Jacoby here. Brown and Williams (Bruisers law firm?) will win the RB battle, though Braelon Allen will go for 15. The highlight of this one will be Puka's return against overall WR1 JSN. They will both exceed 15, but JSN outpaces for BB.
DK gave Dire 16 on Thursday, which should win the WR2 slot (P Wash should find a dozen). Josh Downs needs a strong second half for the Bruisers. Niners D won't keep up with the Seahawks D. Kelce's numbers will be the difference in this one.
Projections
ESPN: Wolves by 13
FP: Wolves by 14
LM: Wolves by 7
Matchup
Bryce is set for plenty of catch-up against the Lions, which should make the QB points close for Ledford. Mahomes will get to 20. The Losers are likely to take the RB lead with Barkley and Tuten finally matching expectations. The Marauders have a notable WR edge here, with Olave/St.Brown putting up great days. Watson not as much. Rashee Rice (LL) is due for a great game and Lamb is an automatic, keeping this one close.
Dicker will win the K battle, but the Losers will need a defensive TD from the Broncos to match special teams points. The Waller vs. Barner TE edge is anyone's guess.
Projections
ESPN: Marauders by 11.5
FP: Marauders by 10.5
LM: Marauders by 5
Matchup
The undefeated Threat head into this one projected highly. But Roman Wilson's 13 for WFT is a nice start and the Colts D is surging in early action. Goff and Darnold likely wash out in scoring. Gibbs/Swift will win the RB matchup for TLM, though E Wilson will show off some moves in Seattle. Will Hubbard help the cause? Expect DJ Moore to help WFT hang around while Davante (Threat) steps back this week.
Jones outduels Kupp in the flex and Bowers goes beast, giving the Threat a strong look at a win. But poor games from Nabers and the Giants D provide an opening that Walkertown could capitalize on.
Projections
ESPN: Threat by 21
FP: Threat by 19
LM: Threat by 7
Matchup
Jordan Love gets the ball for the Cheetahs. He should be fine against the Bucs. Nix won't outpace his day. The Doms will get better numbers from CMC and Jeanty than last week, putting them in a good spot. Kamara has to shine for CC to keep up there (unless Bob breaks a late run). The WR scrum seems like an even duel, though Garrett Wilson is the best of this matchup. Burden or Odunze in Chicago? The points win there will be critical.
Expect McBride to do TE1 things for Diesel, and if the Steelers D (5) doesnt get outpaced by the Texans (Conover), this one will go the Doms way.
Projections
ESPN: Dominators by 18
FP: Dominators by 12
LM: Dominators by 5
One more week in the bag.
Two of our four undefeated teams fell, leaving only the Remix and Threat at 3-0. They've been the two hottest teams to this point, so it seems to make sense.
None of the winless teams corrected course this week in terms of erasing that zero. Improved in some ways, but four still sit at 0-3. Half the league is at 2-1!
Highlighting this week was a 141-point OTW performance from the Remix, fueled by big days from Bijan/Drake and a complement of others. The Threat are leading the way in overall scoring, with Gibbs and Adams continuing to excel.
The closest action of the week saw the Marauders sneak by the Bruisers with a late surge propelled by Brock Purdy's 33 point effort (Power Player). A fun Titleist divisional battle.
In what was supposed to be the best matchup of the week, the Crew lit up the Wolves in a surprise wallop to get their second win as well.
The Crushers are off to a good start this season, and they piled up points with big days from multiple players to get to 2-1.
Led by their receiving corps, the Losers had a solid week against the Addicts. Sucks that Achane got hurt. Hopefully the big injury wave is almost over!
So there's a quick recap of the action. We'll line it up for Week 4 starting with the Power Ranks on Thursday night.
Third round out of fourteen. Here we go with a battle between the NLS and High Rollers divisions along with a Titleist scrum.
The Remix raced out of the gate with a combined 57.5 points from Bijan and London on Thursday and are now projected to top the scoring this week.
Will they get to 3-0? How about the other 3 teams without a blemish on their record? Expect at least one to fall. What about the other side of things? 4 teams are still seeking their first win. Let's see who gets off that list in the next day.
Matchup previews ahead...note that the picks do account for Thursday results.
The Wolves picked up where they left off in '25, and will look to make it 3 straight when they face the highly-ranked Crew--who are still looking for a performance up to team standards.
Wolves
Puka sits for the second straight week, limiting WR upside here. Tet should serve honorably, and if Evans is 100%, he will chip in 10+. Ferguson is a hope-so at Flex, but should see targets. Stafford's numbers will in some way reflect on that. Rams offense should be fine. Never underestimate Watt at IDP. The Seahawks D will find at least a dozen. If Kelce stays hot, the Wolves will get their W.
Crew
A -6 from the Pack D has put the Crew in a projected loss situation. With Walker and Javonte as a top-shelf RB 1-2, expect the Crew to take that positional battle. Burrow may struggle against the Steelers, but Ja'Marr will get his numbers. McConkey is due for his best day yet. Schultz should beat projections, but Judkins may not live up this week. McLaughlin kicks for 12+. Will it be enough?
ESPN: Wolves by .5
FP: Wolves by 2.5
LM: Crew by 5
The Bruisers enter this Titleist matchup at 2-0 and with a share of the division lead. They face a Marauders team with a strong scoring average hoping to move up in the standings.
Bruisers
Herbert is due to break out in this one, if anything by necessity. Expect solid games from Chase Brown and to a lesser degree, Kyren Williams. JSN is the stud and his performance is key to the outcome. Can he go for 20+ to make this one close? Downs should excel in the flex, while Fannin is a great call at TE and the Niners D will pile up numbers against the Cards. Parker W needs to deliver on target share.
Marauders
Watson got the receiving group going with 17 on Thursday, and expectations are for Amon-Ra and Olave to generate about the same each, giving MIM a likely WR edge. Purdy gets the nod against Zona, which should be worth 15+. Chiefs D and kicker should have smooth sailing. Can Pollard deliver as RB2 and can Bucky keep up his solid start? Those questions will determine if Mitchell takes the W here.
ESPN: Marauders by 6.5
FP: Marauders by 11
LM: Marauders by 4
It's been a red hot start for the Remix, and they will piggy-back off Thursday night's great start. The Football Team are trying to right the ship after a rough two weeks filled with injuries.
Remix
This matchup was half-decided when Bijan went for 31.5 and Drake for 26. The rest of the team still has to do their part. Josh Allen is basically a 20-point lock. Zay intends to play, and if he goes, it will involve at least one big moment. Henderson is likely to regress this week. Warren will get plenty of looks at TE. Deebo is a maybe here, but always capable. The Vikes will score a defensive TD. Win incoming.
Football Team
For WFT, this game will be about finding functional pieces to mount a run in the coming weeks. Darnold gets the nod at QB, and that certainly is an upgrade over Drake Maybe. DJ Moore's return is an assist, and DeVonta seems to be rounding into WR1 form. Emanuel Wilson should see an increased workload in the backfield while Hubbard provides RB2 value again. Risky flex with Isaiah. Panthers D will excel.
ESPN: Remix by 40
FP: Remix by 45
LM: Remix by 25
With tons of points and momentum, the Threat line up for 3-0 against the struggling Cheetahs--who are hoping this is the week their players show up for an early but important division win.
Threat
All lights have been green through 2 games, and the luck shows no signs of slowing here. Gibbs and Swift face tougher defenses but should combine for 30. Davante Adams should replicate WR1 role again this week. Nabers unclear, but Likely could help make up for that. Aaron Jones is good for 10+. Dak will probably not reach his projected 14. Pats D could go either way, but totals should be enough.
Cheetahs
Hampton has to bring a first-round game this week. Seems like it's time. Corum(?) at RB2 is worth 8 points. Waddle is back in the starting lineup and should provide top-10 output. Garrett Wilson needs his targets, can he get to 15 points? Jefferson will benefit from the return of Murray. Texans D is a must-start but won't get to 10. Hurts will need a rushing TD to bolster numbers and will get it. Closer than projected.
ESPN: Threat by 9
FP: Threat by 12.5
LM: Threat by 3
These two teams square off with plenty of upside but not yet at their peak performance. The Crushers are aiming to keep pace in the NLS while the Dominators look for W1.
Crushers
The Crushers are set to benefit from their Baltimore combo, with Lamar adding rushes to what should be a big day for Henry. James Cook goes for 20 against LAC. Higgins and Shakir likely underachieve, while Warren manages 10 in the flex. LaPorta is TD dependent here, and that will matter. This game will come down to the Eagles D on Monday night...can they make it hell for Case Keenum?
Dominators
It's a double TE week for the Diesels, with McBride and Kincaid both getting 10+ in the end. CMC is good for 18 this week. Jeanty's day will be critical, and he should provide enough juice to keep this one interesting. The two keys here will be Nix against the Rams (garbage yards still count) and the Steelers D. If Pittsburgh can get to Burrow and Nix can get a deep strike to Waddle, the Doms will find the W.
ESPN: Crushers by 3
FP: Crushers by 6.5
LM: Dominators by 1
It's been a rough start for both of these squads in terms of production, but the Addicts enter as the favorites to get their first win against the Losers (who are still looking for a breakout week).
Losers
Pitts (1) has yet to assist the Ledford cause, but this is the week that Rashee truly does. Look for 15+ from Rice. Unclear if Mike Wilson helps, but CeeDee will get his. Bryce gets the nod with Daniels out and should have one more week of looking like a QB1. Saquon has to find 18-20 to make this work, as Tuten is likely to underwhelm. The Broncos D are a question mark vs. LA and the sum won't add up.
Addicts
Taylor and Achane are a vicious combo that hasn't yet shown their ceiling. This is the week we see it. Expect a combined 40. Stroud has a middling day at the helm. Skattebo at flex is boom/bust but he should get the touches. Pickens and Coker should go for 10 apiece. Can Kittle have one of those days in the late afternoon window? Jags D will likely top out at 7 points. Still should be enough.
ESPN: Addicts by 23
FP: Addicts by 13.5
LM: Addicts by 10
Two weeks in the books. 4 teams stand at 2-0. 4 are at 1-1. 4 at 0-2. Quite balanced on the surface, with three distinct tiers in terms of record.
In terms of performance though? The Threat have emerged as the early leader in the clubhouse. They've posted 140+ in two straight weeks, Points are showing up from every position. A 60-point victory this week reinforced their hot start in Week 1.
The Remix gave us the only dramatic finish in Week 2, riding a late couple of Warren completions to a narrow win over the Crushers. They were on fire in Wk 1, and won the close one this week.
For the Wolves and Bruisers, underwhelming performances by their opponents created a wider path to victory, but that takes nothing away from back-to-back wins. The Wolves got some Kelce magic this week, while the Bruisers were fueled by an amazing day from Smith-Njigba.
Two 0-1 teams equalized their record, as the Marauders cruised in the Bro Bowl and the Crew got by the Addicts in a matchup where QB's were not needed.
For everyone else, it was falling back to .500, taking injuries, and/or not catching any breaks. The luck will change at some point for all 12 teams, so no need to panic. There's a long way to go. However, we're getting a better look at the strong starters and the hamstrung strugglers...if only through 2 games.
Let's cruise through the specifics from this week:
Perhaps the magic will wear off at some point, but so far the Threat are Scarning the competition so far with points from all corners.
Three big perfomances and a rushing blast got the Threat to 2-0. Davante Adams posted a stellar 34 to lead the way, but Dak's 27.5 and 23 more from the Pats D ensured another 140+ day for TLM. Gibbs and Swift combined for 28 more. A winning formula.
The Losers were ixnayed by injuries to Jayden Daniels and Saquon....despite 29 from CeeDee. Jayden's 13.5 was next best, with a dozen from the Broncos D. Otherwise, the scoring ceiling was limited with 4 players posting 2 or less.
When a stud player delivers, no tip is required. The Bruisers are benefitting from their top-tier keeper and it's netted them two wins in a row.
Despite bad days from Herbert and Loveland (again), JSN blasted for 37 and 12+ days from Parker Washington, Kyren, and the 49ers D ensured another win.
For the Football Team, DeVonta led the way wth 23 and Aubrey kicked in 16.5 to give WFT an improvement over last week. Moore's injury furthers the damaged outlook.
In the most competitive matchup of the week, some late OG energy helped the Remix clip the upstart Crushers in a division duel.
Josh Allen ripped for 34.5 to start the scoring, and a timely pickup of Bateman added 16.5 more. No one else reached double digits, so a timely shuffle proved enough to get it done for the Remix despite Zay's absence.
The Crushers had positive vibes entering the week and that was reinforced by Cook's 20 and Henry's 13.5 points. Several others reached 11-12, but lower scores from the ancillary positions left them just short.
This rematch of the '23 title game saw the Wolves capitalize on key contributions from multiple spots to keep their championship momentum rolling.
Stafford's 28 on Monday was the team high and added icing to the cake, even though the game was decided when Kelce went for 20.5. The Seahawks D chipped in 15. Even without Puka, the Wolves continue to ride their '25 winning energy.
The Cheetahs aren't off to the start they hoped for, but they did make the playoffs last year after an 0-2 start. Hampton's 14 proved to be the team's best, with Wilson and Hurts adding a dozen each. Jetta's down day hurt the cause.
Stretching back to Week 12 of last season, the Marauders had dropped 7 straight games. Turns out family was just what they needed.
St. Brown got things started for Mitchell with 28.5 on Thursday. Purdy added to the attack with 26 points in a continuing resurgence for the Niners. Butker kicked in some insurance with 18 on Sunday night to get them to 1-1.
CMC gave 16 to the Dominators cause, while Nix (13.5) and McBride (12) added solid efforts. In the end, it just wasn't enough from the receiving corps to get them in the win column.
The Addicts have gotten the better of the Crew historically, but this one was saw 4:20 flip the script on their NLS foe.
Losing Dart in the early moments of Monday night wasn't ideal, but it was a moot point by the time the smoke cleared. Kenneth Walker led the way with 22.5, while Dalton Schultz delivered 22 in an important division win. Chase returned to form with 19.
The Addicts run game was solid enough, paced by JT's 23 and a manageable 10 from Achane. Kittle added 14, but the Caleb injury and arbitrary D/ST and K scores kept Ghetto from challenging in this one.
Week 2 is here. The Lions and Bills posted plenty of numbers on Thursday, highlighted by 34.5 for Allen (Remix), 28.5 for St. Brown (Marauders), 20 for Cook (Crushers), and 18 for Gibbs (Threat).
Sunday brings a full slate of LOC action, with the NLS in their second straight divisional week and the High Rollers taking on the Titleist division. Half the league is 1-0, half 0-1. Are you bouncing back this week, building on a good start, or establishing the wrong kind of early season streak?
Here are the matchups, starting with the two that feature 1-0 teams:
This one could go either way. The Crushers need a big day from Lamar. Tee Higgins will also be counted on. Eagles D should feast. Remix will benefit from better Falcons performance. Bateman needs WR1 numbers. Deebo a sneaky flex with upside.
Crushers by 3
If Puka doesn't go, Davante should give the Threat a big lift. Swift and Aaron Jones also set for solid weeks. Dak comes in around 15. Will be enough. The Losers face uphill battle, but a big Rashee game + Saquon going for 20+ could keep this one close. MarShawn Lloyd has to maximize.
Threat by 10
Look for top-tier days from Breece Hall and Mike Evans for the Wolves. Need Puka to go Monday night for the winning edge. The Cheetahs will get better run from Hampton this week, but will be counting on JJ/Burden to keep this one in sight. Hurts has a great day.
Wolves by 4
Addicts should win rushing battle with big games from Achane and Taylor. Pickens underwhelms but Caleb has another great day. Kittle needed for 10. Crew see 20+ from KW3, Chase bounces back. Bucs D and Javonte will determine if 420 wins.
Addicts by 3
Chuba and Devonta both exceed projections for Walkertown. Baker has a solid game. Moore injury keeps WFT from win. Herbert and Loveland look like they are supposed to this week. JSN has a big day. Chase Brown performance essential to outcome.
Bruisers by 8
Amon-Ra ensures MIM takes receiving edge. Bucs and Chiefs will decide if its enough overall. Bucky plays well, Chiefs D lets team down. Dominators get big days from Jeanty and CMC. Odunze has to step up. Jeremiyah Love key to victory.
Dominators by 3
It's Wednesday now, but the effects of Week 1 Divisionals are still being felt.
We saw teams playing like they were only two practices in (both in the NFL and in fantasy). We saw teams charge down the road like they were title bound. And a lot of uncertainty and underwhelming 0's. It all makes sense. Week 1 is like that.
A race for the high score and a race for the low score marked the fringes of LOC action in our opening act.
The Threat led the way this week by a nose, fueled by big days from their running backs (and their kicker). They barely edged out the Remix for OTW, who found a balanced assault from multiple spots. The only truly close game was the Fumbowl between the Losers and Football Team (more on that in The Nugget).
In what was predicted to be the Marquee Matchup, the Wolves got the better of the Dominators, while elsewhere, the Bruisers and Crushers both scored 11-point wins over their division opponents.
Let's recap the headlines...
A lot of points were scored, but the Threat were not to be denied in this Titleist matchup. Gibbs led the way with 29 and was nearly matched by Swift's 27.5. Receiving points weren't great, but Isaiah Likely's 19.5 and McPherson's 20 at kicker were enough to secure an OTW and a big division win. The Marauders got a team-leading 25 from Olave and posted 130 overall, but lost the defensive battle and definitely lost the rushing battle.
The scoring was balanced for the Remix, who were only a point away from the top spot this week. Josh Allen's 32 were pivotal in insuring victory, with a pair of 20+ games from Bijan and Monangai (in the flex) stacking the odds. Zay Flowers (26.5) was a machine prior to getting hurt, and it appears that players who underachieved are getting shelved by the fast-acting Remix. The Crew earned a Power Player for KW3's 33 point outburst, but down days from Chase (2) and Ferguson (1.5) and a goose egg from the LAC D sealed the outcome.
Both QB's wet the sheets in this one, but TJ Watt proved the difference maker for the Wolves. His 23 was a team high in the win. Montgomery chipped in 21 more and the Seahawks added 17 to get the defending champs off to a winning start with a High Rollers conquest. The Dominators were let down by Nix (1) and their WR duo (8 combined), but had highlights with Jeanty's 27 point day and a league's best 20 from the Steelers D. The rookie Jeremiyah Love added a promising 18 in his debut.
The Cheetahs needed 12 from Waddle on Monday night to overtake the Bruisers, but he managed only .5 in one of the shocking blanks of the week. JSN's 23 got the Bruisers rolling on Wednesday, and that proved to be the team's top score. Chase Brown (14) and Kyren (11.5) added effective performances to get BB out in front. Justin Jefferson led the Conover effort with 23 himself, and Jalen Hurts delivered 22.5 in a return to form. But a -4 from the Texans D proved costly in defeat.
The Crushers got the better of their NLS rivals in this one, thanks in no small part to their Baltimore tandem. Lamar gave 25, but it was Henry's 3 TDs and 30 points that made the difference. No one else reached double digits for the Cliffs, but they got exactly what they needed to get by. The Addicts were led by Caleb Williams' 30.5 points, with JT adding 19 and the Jags providing 17. Receiving underachievement kept Ghetto from challenging for the W.
In a game where 7 starters scored 3 points or less between the two teams, the Losers held on to take a .5 point win over the Football Team in this High Rollers shitfest. Ledford was led by Jayden Daniel's 16 and assisted by 10.5 from Lamb. No one else showed up. The Football Team lost AJ Brown and Myles Garrett to injury, got a combined -1 from their kicker, IDP and defense, and saw great efforts from DJ Moore (19.5) and Chuba (17.5) account for more than half of the team's points.
The first official weekend of the season is here!
Wednesday and Thursday gave us the usual opening salvo of injuries and underachievement. Preseason Part 2 in a lot of ways. There were a couple of standouts...JSN posted 23 to give the Bruisers an early lead. The Seahawks D gave the Wolves 17 points as they kick off their title defense (x2). Otherwise, not a lot to be excited about.
That brings us to Sunday's action. The Titleist division will be battling each other for 1-0, while the NLS will take on the High Rollers in a cross-division duel.
Everyone arrives with a clean slate. Here's your first chance to find out who is charging out of the gate and who may need a new one. Half of us will get a winning start, half of us will be "moving on to Cincinnati". Potential waivers gems will become a lot more apparent over the next couple of days. Surprise rookies, veteran fall-offs, unexpected breakouts...all soon to come.
Let's dive into the matchups. Best of luck, LOC!
Note: Predictions are from ESPN, Fantasy Pros, and the Commish. They are current--adjusted to account for early action. Marquee Matchup noted with MM.
Half of the Wolves starters are on the board, with the Hawks 17 as best and Stafford's 4 as the low point. Evans/Puka both reached double-digits, and Tet will have to do better than 11.5 points. Look for Breece Hall to have a great day and Montgomery to exceed the expected 10. A Kelce throwback game might be the win/loss difference.
CMC was eased in with 11 points, so the impetus falls on Jeanty and Love to pace the RB trio. Expect Jeanty to do so. Odunze is cleared to play and will find 15. McLaurin has a tougher go against Philly. The Steelers will force turnovers today. McBride is likely to score. Can Nix come up big on Monday night? That will determine the fate here.
All Time: 14-12, Wolves
ESPN: Dominators by 5
FP: Wolves by .5
LM: Dominators by 5
Expectations are high for Saquon and the Eagles, with a 20-point opener probable for Barkley. Tuten less of a lock. Jayden Daniels gets a tough draw. Lamb should be a top-5 WR play, while Rice is a wild card here. Pitts and Lloyd will both have high floor performances. If Dicker and the Broncos D can hold their own, this is a comfortable win for LL.
It wasn't a great start for Maye/AJ (combined 10.5), but the Football Team will be looking for upside elsewhere to stay in this matchup. The Titans D has a great matchup on paper. DJ Moore will have a great game. Can DeVonta carry the remaining WR numbers needed? Mayer is likely to find the end zone. The Dowdle/Hubbard duo is the key to hope.
All Time: 10-5, Losers
ESPN: Losers by 28.5
FP: Losers by 25
LM: Losers by 8
The projections point to a big season for the Remix, but they will have to overcome the picks for this one. Allen is likely capped at 15 against Houston. Bijan will get fed...can Etienne find the end zone and 15+ carries (with Kamara out)? London may not live up to billing, while Zay Flowers will beat his 11-pt projection. The Ravens D are key to keeping this close.
The Burrow-Chase connection highlights the upside in this one, with the pairing likely to produce 30+. McConkey will get the targets...can he find paydirt? Ferguson has sneaky upside for Sunday night, as does Judkins in the flex. Look for Judkins to break one. Chargers D will feast (as will J Brooks). If Javonte and specifically KW3 can get rolling, its a winner.
All Time: 16-8, Crew
ESPN: Crew by 4.5
FP: Crew by 1.5
LM: Crew by 10
Lamar is healthy and should get the Crushers off to a great start. Cook and Henry are going to be a mean rushing combo, though Warren will need to deliver in the flex. Those 4 are the 60-pt foundation in this one. Can Higgins (vs. TB) or Reed (vs. MIN) exceed WR2 numbers? Warner tackled 9.5 on Thursday, the Eagles D may score 5 or less. LaPorta an X-factor.
Taylor and Achane form a big 1-2 at RB. The rushing battle should be fun to watch here. Expect 30+ from the duo. Will Caleb step up against Carolina? He should find 15. Pickens and Williams are likely 10-pointers here. Kittle underwhelmed (2.5), but Skattebo could flip the script with a good game Sunday night. Jags D will score. Close finish ahead.
All Time: 19-10, Addicts
ESPN: Crushers by 3.5
FP: Crushers by 20
LM: Crushers by 2
Only 5 from Corum in Melbun, so Hampton will need to hot-hand his way to a big day. Expect 20. Jefferson should pace the receiver room, so Wilson and Waddle must answer the bell. Target share for both is a critical factor. The Texans D may not get to 10, but a sloppy Bills start could grant them a TD. Kraft got paid, can he and Waddle keep the Cheetahs in it?
With decent numbers from Kyren (11.5) and a WR1 day from JSN (23), the ball is rolling. Chase Brown needs a Bengals lead here to keep him engaged. Will Parker Washington get the necessary targets? Loveland will have 12+ against Carolina. The Lions D can probably find 10. The real key here? Justin Herbert. His day will decide if this is a close one or not.
All Time: 14-13, Cheetahs
ESPN: Bruisers by 13
FP: Bruisers by 12
LM: Bruisers by 5
Mahomes leads the offense with questions about his (and the running game's) ability to support winning weeks. PM will need double-digits. Bucky Irving will take advantage of expanded carries in this one. Dobbins likely falls short. WR group enters with optimism, expect Amon-Ra, Nico, and Olave to combine for 50. Only enough if Vikings and Chiefs play great.
The Pats D put up a respectable 10 on Wednesday, but Davante's slow start (4) puts the WR group in question. Malik and Godwin will need to outpace their projected 18 combined points. Look for a big opening score from Gibbs against New Orleans, and Swift to land at about 10. If Dak goes for 15+ on Sunday night, the Threat will win.
All Time: 9-2, Threat
ESPN: Even
FP: Even
LM: Threat by 3
Football time, fellas. Wednesday and Thursday give us our first two games of the regular season. Here's who to watch for from the LoC in these first two matchups.
WFT vs. Losers
Football Team: Drake Maye, AJ Brown
Wolves vs. Dominators
Wolves: Seahawks D/ST
Dominators: Jason Myers
Bruisers vs. Cheetahs
Bruisers: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jadarian Price
Threat vs. Marauders
Threat: Patriots D/ST
WFT vs. Losers
Football Team: Myles Garrett
Wolves vs. Dominators
Wolves: Matt Stafford, Puka Nacua, Mike Evans, Eddy Pineiro
Bruisers vs. Cheetahs
Bruisers: Kyren Williams
Cheetahs: Blake Corum
Crushers vs. Addicts
Crushers: Fred Warner
Addicts: George Kittle, Harrison Mevis
Threat vs. Marauders
Threat: Davante Adams
(Image in Pt 1) As noted with the lines, this is a 3-tier split, with the Remix and Dominators projected to be the highest scorers by a healthy margin.
Then there’s a big grouping in the middle, followed by paltry expectations for the Marauders and Football Team.
While the top 2 and bottom 2 are likewise reflected in ESPN’s “Power Rankings”, the middle tier is ranked vastly different from their own points projections! Hard to figure.
Next up, here are the Fantasy Pros rankings for your draft. (Image in Pt 1)
In contrast to ESPN, FP sees the Crew and Threat as the teams to beat, the Dominators more in the middle of the pack, and thinks less of the Wolves, Addicts and Losers. The algorithms can’t both be correct!
Now we move to FFR, which is just a ranking tool for team rosters. Here are the values it assigns (divided down to a 100-point scale from a bulky 1800 point system). (Image above)
Here the Remix are the clear clubhouse leaders, with teams like the Cheetahs and Bruisers treated very differently than via Fantasy Pros. The top-tier teams aren’t too variant from the other ranking systems, though the Crushers are projected to do much better than either other platform suggests.
Lastly, here are the FootballGuys draft grades and playoff chances (using the “average team management” filter for all 12).
(Image below)
In some ways, it’s a synthesis of the prior 3 lists. The top 4…Remix, Threat, Crew and Dominators all have a better than 50% chance of making the playoffs, while teams like the Marauders and Football Team will definitely have their work cut out for them.
It’s important to note that these rankings don’t account for key factors that certainly lie ahead: Injuries, bye weeks, underachieving studs, sleepers, trades, and waiver gems waiting to be plucked.
As you know, how you manage those elements will truly determine your success or lack thereof.
Reflective of the rankings we just went through, here are positional ranks for each team (excluding IDP) at this early stage. These will certainly be fleeting and ultimately inaccurate in some cases, but this is where we start. (Image below)
Let's close this out with picks from the Commish.
Here are some quick and dirty predictions for each team. We'll revisit these after Week 14.
Record: 10-4
Playoffs: Yes
MVP: Josh Allen
Worst Case: Lack of positional depth causes bye week slumps.
Record: 9-5
Playoffs: Yes
MVP: Kenneth Walker
Worst Case: Receivers don't live up to billing, hampering ceiling.
Record: 7-7
Playoffs: No
MVP: De'Von Achane
Worst Case: WR points don't assist rushing cause enough.
Record: 6-8
Playoffs: No
MVP: James Cook
Worst Case: Depth concerns and WR scoring lower upside.
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Record: 9-5
Playoffs: Yes
MVP: Christian McCaffrey
Worst Case: Receiving group depth proves to be too shallow.
Record: 7-7
Playoffs: No
MVP: CeeDee Lamb
Worst Case: QB and TE fail to support RB/WR scoring.
Record: 6-8
Playoffs: No
MVP: Puka Nacua
Worst Case: Starter PPG ceiling proves as low as some projections.
Record: 5-9
Playoffs: No
MVP: Drake Maye
Worst Case: Patriots connection fails to match expectations.
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Record: 9-5
Playoffs: Yes
MVP: Jahmyr Gibbs
Worst Case: WR group gets hit with injury bug.
Record: 7-7
Playoffs: Yes
MVP: Justin Jefferson
Worst Case: Running game doesn't find their footing.
Record: 7-7
Playoffs: Yes
MVP: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Worst Case: Thin receiving depth causes midseason issues.
Record: 5-9
Playoffs: No
MVP: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Worst Case: Poor rushing attack never gets corrected.
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Good luck to everyone. I'm grateful we get to do this stuff every year. Have fun, play nice, don't quit, go win. Commish out.
After a long 7-month wait…Season 21 is officially cleared for takeoff.
The draft is done. The rosters are set. The schedule is out. Now we fire up the engines for actual football.
In keeping with tradition, the Season Preview will taxi us down the runway toward the next iteration of the League of Champions.
Is it really true that you can lose your league on draft day? To some degree it’s certainly possible, but as we’ve seen historically, teams can rise above the dim projections of fantasy experts and claim the trophy (or at least fight for it). Our league is competitive enough that how things start and how they finish is never so cut and dried.
Let's go back to ‘25...following our epic draft…the commish cobbled together expert positional rankings across 3 sites to gauge projections of team strength. Let’s see how those played out. Teams noted in bold are where the final record varied significantly from the team score.
Team score rankings (with final record):
1. Addicts - 94 (9-5)
2. Wolves - 92 (9-5)
3. Cheetahs - 90 (8-6)
4. Crew - 89 (12-2)
5. Bruisers - 88 (5-9)
6. Football Team - 86 (6-8)
7. Losers - 84 (6-8)
8. Remix - 83 (5-9)
9. Dominators - 82 (7-7)
10. Threat - 80 (5-9)
11. Marauders - 78 (6-8)
12. Crushers - 77 (6-8)
The top 3 teams all made good on projections, with the Wolves closing strong and taking the trophy on the strength of a top-shelf receiver room and James Cook’s phenomenal season. The Cheetahs started slow but ultimately took the Titleist division by winning 3 of their last 4. And the Addicts stood strong in the NLS to claim the top wild card spot.
Teams in the middle of the pack generally underperformed in comparison to their projected strength. The Football Team and Bruisers both had tough midseason/bye week stretches that pushed them out of contention despite expert ranks that had them finishing 8-6.
The Crew were the only alternate anomaly, running up a 12-win season that won the NLS and put them in strong contention for a title. Worth noting that only 5 teams even got to .500 last year, which is an unfortunate way to reflect how competitive the league is.
A further reflection of parity exists in the fact that the late-surging Losers made a title-game run at 6-8, while the Marauders finished 12th with the same record. It’s not just about wins--it truly is a points game--and it’s about when you get hot/cold. Regardless, the Losers became the first team to make the playoffs with a losing record, and they took out 2 of the top 3 teams en route to a hard landing in the title game.
You all remember how closely fought the Wild Card race was last season. Rather than the usual couple of teams fighting for a final spot, no one seemed to want to win when it mattered. Most everything came down to Week 14.
The Remix faded late in the season after a streaky W/L roller coaster throughout. Conversely, the Crushers and Threat started poorly and played chase with improved performance, but could not find enough wins late.
The Dominators had to sneak out a .5 point win against WFT in Wk 14 to get in. They seemed destined for a return to the title game after earning their wild card ticket and advancing...until they ran into the Wolves 159 points in the Semis (despite posting 138.5 points in a great effort).
Most everything came down to points tiebreakers and that final divisional week. A bizarre failfest for most every team in the middle tier and below. To bring it back to the crux of the recap, the expert team rankings weren’t that far off…but it's a reminder that there are always a handful of teams that crush or crash despite the 30,000 foot view at the season’s start.
Time to dig into this season’s analysis. We’re spreading the wealth across 4 different platforms for scores and rankings.
Let’s start with what ESPN thinks your scoring average will be, based on your top 10 starters. Bear in mind that the historical league average is 102 ppg.